This alert expired on 4 July 2026 at 23:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 67 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 6:27PM EDT until July 4 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 128,814 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- June 6, 2026 · score 43 · 2.1 km
- May 13, 2026 · score 43 · 6.9 km
- March 17, 2026 · score 43 · 10.7 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 82 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 82% |
| Coordinates | 40.0758, -77.0667 |
| Nearest City | Carlisle (17 km) |
| Population Exposed | 128.8K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-04T22:27:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f45f276329f77333a63db1cba37bfea8 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Howard, MD; Montgomery, MD; Charles, MD; St. Marys, MD; King George, VA; Amherst, VA; Appomattox, VA; Bedford, VA; Buckingham, VA; Campbell, VA; Pittsylvania, VA; City of Lynchburg, VA and 21 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 6:27PM EDT until July 4 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-04T19:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 24 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f45f276329f77333a63db1cba37bfea8f30cb702.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.341e32754cb3d292fb178508f760d998757703ec.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.31a62c0e7f8f984e902d12d4eb285dabcfd80503.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.691c23b708b67fed027bdfc9b4f7b7824b15f7aa.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f38f8e312727aadc9fc8e6c95247319757addcf7.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.87cb78cb7ad62946ca44a30ce6c90a08f44c049d.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3009ea0d992f79b7e2acc435909167dd7bfb661a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e04f0b5a47880ff555b81f4ca2c4154fe82d4a7e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.64cb25bcd0223e056c32b753608ce73c2b416e8f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.54f0b2f98f38b7ba520fbb33c4b8ba9119218ed6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0b0cca37919c85c1b0033505140e2fa1a0f34d64.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b7f1edcc6d70841db5c917d5f67bacc110425a2f.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d9a496ee0cc15e093751d3815c2a1d604c75939c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1fde092403c28f887d08e36ac42a7cc31b47ec8c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e6a11b829cf85a07bf87545083ff5d04a1787439.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d11d31cfd4765ac2e8762598957bc266735a155d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.737bb966f57c8144bd10cbc6cf9dd26128f63bec.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4f76bc49036fa7bd637023c4c4dfafa7e8b4c835.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.08a51231f81fca07cf71222b2a1517e04abaadb3.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f0c1948702f5017121c0d7784b2c8399cb54ed0b.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b7fbe514758cfb95ee1ffd3087f303ead4c422b9.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.61b0abade3b68b2792d32d24ba04427110d3889d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8c23397594e33afa1b814c92678121638f84603f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.54be9178ee66d52b2cedda8c70f7c1dc12ff5cd4.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 1 S Orrstown |
| Iem County | Franklin |
| Iem State | PA |
| Iem Wfo | CTP |
| Iem Remark | Tree down blocking road. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_40.040_-77.610_1783201800000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783201800000,"latitude":40.04,"longitude":-77.61}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100, near Carlisle (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.